2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee
2024 U.S. state election
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Tennessee voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A Southern state covered entirely in the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points. Tennessee is expected to go safely for the GOP candidate in 2024.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Tennessee Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won the state in a landslide, earning all 63 pledged delegates
Biden
- 80–90%>90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 122,803 | 92.14% | 63 | 63 | |
| Uncommitted | 10,475 | 7.86% | 0 | 0 | |
| Total: | 133,278 | 100.00% | 63 | 7 | 70 |
| Source: [4][5] | |||||
Republican primary
The Tennessee Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 57.8 points and earning all 58 delegates.
Trump
- 60–70%70–80%80–90%>90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 446,850 | 77.33% | 58 | 0 | 58 |
| Nikki Haley | 112,958 | 19.55% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 7,947 | 1.38% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 4,884 | 0.85% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,874 | 0.32% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,714 | 0.30% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 722 | 0.13% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 533 | 0.09% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Stuckenberg | 352 | 0.06% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 577,834 | 100.00% | 58 | 0 | 58 |
| Source: [6][7] | |||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[8] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Solid R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Solid R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[12] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[13] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[A] | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 974 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 55% | 31% | 14% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | December 14–28, 2023 | 929 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 63% | 31% | 5% |
| Siena College[B] | November 5–10, 2023 | 805 (A) | – | 49% | 20% | 31% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | October 5–16, 2023 | 872 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 61% | 30% | 9% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 410 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | June 14–22, 2023 | 1,046 (V) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 34% | 11% |
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | April 19–23, 2023 | 502 (RV) | – | 42% | 26% | 31% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[A] | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 974 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 47% | 28% | 15% | 10% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | December 14–28, 2023 | 933 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 25% | 16% | 8% |
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | November 14 – December 2, 2023 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 26% | 12% | 17% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | October 5–16, 2023 | 872 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 23% | 19% | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin as an Independent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Joe Manchin Independent | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[A] | October 5–16, 2023 | 844 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 53% | 23% | 6% | 18% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[A] | June 14–22, 2023 | 977 (V) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 36% | 11% |
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | April 19–23, 2023 | 502 (RV) | – | 33% | 24% | 40% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in Tennessee
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Tennessee elections
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- ^ a b c d Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
- Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Tennessean
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "March 5, 2024 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Tennessee Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "March 5, 2024 Republican Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Tennessee Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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